Democratic Primary

Everybody's eyes are on Pennysylvania these days. Thanks to the whipsaw nature of the Democratic presidential primary race this year, Pennsylvania's in the spotlight when it comes to electoral politics on the national stage. People everywhere are talking about Pennsylvania -- what it is, what's like, what it all means. Pundits are pontificating right and left about Pennsylvania voters -- who they are, who're they're for, what they're going to do on April 22. And, inevitably, most of them are wrong a lot of the time.

Pennsylvania is just like Ohio, the talking heads are telling us. Well, yes and no. Some parts of Pennsylvania are just like parts of Ohio, demographically speaking. Other parts, not so much. Pennsylvania is a very big place. And, like Ohio, it's a very diverse place, with different parts of the state displaying significantly different historical and sociocultural influences.

The Appalachian Mountains run diagonally through Pennsylvania from lower left to upper right, physically as well as demographically dividing it into several dissimilar environments. Fully a third of the state's 12 million residents live in the Philadelphia metropolitan area, which bustles along the Delaware River valley in the southeastern corner of PA and sprawls across the Delaware and New Jersey lines to include another 2 million of their neighbors.

Another 2-1/2 million Pennsylvanians live in the southwestern part of the state, in the greater Pittsburgh area, near the upper edge of some of the most rugged parts of the Appalachians. While the sociocultural roots of PA's two biggest population centers could hardly be more different, they are both large, sophisticated urban centers and day-to-day life for their residents is more similar than not.

MoveOn.org membership has voted overwhelmingly to endorse Barack Obama. I want to note that this is not the decision of the organizers of MoveOn.org, but of the membership. Obama got 70% of the votes.

Here is the press release from MoveOn.org:

In a resounding vote today, MoveOn.org Political Action's members nationwide voted to endorse Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President. The group, with 3.2 million members nationwide and over 1.7 million members in Super Tuesday states, will immediately begin to mobilize on behalf of Senator Obama. The vote favored Senator Obama to Senator Clinton by 70.4% to 29.6%.

Senator Obama accepted the endorsement stating:

"In just a few years, the members of MoveOn have once again demonstrated that real change comes not from the top-down, but from the bottom-up. From their principled opposition to the Iraq war - a war I also opposed from the start - to their strong support for a number of progressive causes, MoveOn shows what Americans can achieve when we come together in a grassroots movement for change. I thank them for their support and look forward to working with their members in the weeks and months ahead."

Eli Pariser, MoveOn.org's Executive Director, issued the following statement on the group's endorsement:

"Our members' endorsement of Senator Obama is a clear call for a new America at this critical moment in history. Seven years of the disastrous policies of the Bush Administration have left the country desperate for change. We need a President who will bring to bear the strong leadership and vision required to end the war in Iraq, provide health care to every American, deal with our climate crisis, and restore America's standing in the world. The enormity of the challenges require someone who knows how to inspire millions to get involved to change the direction of our country, and someone who will be willing to change business as usual in Washington. Senator Barack Obama has proved he can and will be that President.

One day after Daily Gotham and Culture Kitchen opt for Obama, John Edwards drops out of the race. Coincidence?

Well, yeah. But many at DG and CK really liked John Edwards, feeling far more leery of either Obama or Hillary because of their tendency to, as we see it, pander to the right. Honestly, I think an Obama Presidency, a Hillary Clinton Presidency and a John Edwards Presidency would all look very similar, and very good. But Edwards leaned more left and we liked that.

But, for our various reasons, most of us had already been shifting to Obama and it pretty much gelled for us within the last week. I guess you could say we saw the writing on the wall and jumped ship just before it sank. But really we also have warmed to Obama (and I have even warmed to Hillary) and it is a credit to Obama that he has convinced us that he is the the right choice now.

For more on the shift to Obama from Edwards and from Hillary, there are some good diaries around. Here is a touching one on Daily Kos of a woman tearfully abandoning what she sees as her last chance to see a woman president and votes for Obama because she thinks he'd be the better President. Here is my decision diary on Culture Kitchen. Here is a Daily Kos article reasoning through why Edwards supporters might want to consider Obama. Here is Michael Bouldin's (a solid Edwards supporter from early on) endorsement of Obama from yesterday. Here is the former president of NOW Chicago's endorsement of Obama.

We regret to see Edwards leave so soon. But it is looking like it is a very real possibility that we may have our first black president, and possibly our most inspiring Democratic president of my lifetime. Thank you John Edwards for the issues you kept our attention on. I hope you keep it up.

Now, Go Obama!

Bill Richardson, fresh from his diplomatic success in North Korea, is now the only Presidential Candidate of either party to actively work with Indian Country. He has agreed to participate in Prez on the Rez, the forum in Indian Country sponsored by the Indigenous Democratic Network (INDN). From INDN:

Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the first presidential candidate to commit to Prez on the Rez, recorded a brief message to the supporters of the INDN's List Education Fund and interested Indians throughout the country.

In his message, Governor Richardson outlines why he was eager to be the first candidate committed to Prez on the Rez and the importance of national leaders reaching out to Indian Country.

We expect the other presidential candidates to commit very soon. Of course, if they don't, it will send a strong message to all American Indians that the candidate in question might not be committed to changing the way Washington deals with Indian Country. Stay tuned for updates.

Meanwhile, Prez on the Rez continues to generate positive attention throughout Indian Country and newsmedia across the nation. The event merited coverage in the New York Times political blog, and has received extensive coverage in the Southern California region in which it will be held.

I already posted the footage of Bill Richardson and Barack Obama's responses. Here is the one I had missed so far.

Here is the second Democracy for America film clip on the Democratic Primary candidates. As with Barack Obama's clip, I present it without comment:

In 2006, the Indigneous Democratic Network, set up by Kalyn Free of the Choctaw Nation, helped elect an unprecedented number of Native Americans across America. They continue to strengthen the voice of Native Americans in politics. They are working to set up forums for the Presidential Candidates on Reservations (called Prez on the Rez). Bill Richardson is the first candidate to commit to participte in these forums and the idea is supported by Howard Dean, head of the DNC. The first such forum is being planned for the Morongo Reservation in California.

We are excited to announce that we have selected the Morongo Band of Mission Indians in Cabazon, California to host Prez on the Rez on August 23, 2007.

“No major presidential campaign event has ever come to Indian Country,” said Morongo Tribal Chairman Robert Martin. “This represents a historic opportunity for this country's First Americans to take a direct role in the future of America by holding a national level forum for presidential candidates. We couldn't be more proud to make history for Indian Country by hosting this extraordinary event.”

The announcement, and the official launch of Prez on the Rez, was held in conjunction with the winter executive meeting of the National Congress of American Indians in Washington, DC. In a speech at that meeting, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico became the first presidential candidate to commit to Prez on the Rez.

For months now it seemed to me that Wes Clark was running for President without yet RUNNING for President. As I get an increasing number of emails from Wes supporters describing an increasing number of events surrounding this not-yet candidate, it has been inevitable for me to start assuming Wes will declare in time. What is he waiting for? Not sure. But clearly he is waiting for just the right moment. My money is on his declaring and has been for months. And this is one reason why I have taken all predictions about 2008, including the Hillary inevitability myth, as highly suspect.

Now, I am very unlikely to support Wes Clark in the primary. And I am very unlikely to support Hillary Clinton in the primary. I lean vaguely towards Edwards or Obama. But I will make clear that I almost certainly would campaign for either Clark or Clinton in the general election should they get the nomination. Though I might lean towards Edwards or Obama, I consider the other contenders perfectly good candidates for President and would eagerly support them over the Veteran who has betrayed Veterans (McCain) and the 9/11 "hero" who has betrayed the REAL 9/11 heroes (Giuliani) or any of the other political dwarfs the Republicans are running.

But what would a Wes Clark candidacy mean? I think the main thing it would do is knock Hillary off her "inevitable" platform. With Obama catching up to Hillary already in some polls, Wes Clark entering the fray would probably turn what is currently an almost two-way race with Edwards and Richardson in second tier (and the others almost certainly losers) into a probable 3-way race which not only will boost Obama's chances, but will bring the first tier candidates (Clinton, Obama and, probably, Clark) closer to the second tier candidates.

Finally the Nevada Democrats have realized that it is not a good idea to work with a company that routinely lies, advocates bombing American cities and killing Supreme Court justices. Barak Obama has been refusing to deal with Fox Propoganda. John Edwards flatly said he would refuse to participate in a debate hosted by Fox Propoganda. And apparantly the Nevada Democrats got a real earful about how foolish it would be to give Fox the chance to call even some of the shots. According to Daily Kos, the Nevada Democrats have turned down Fox. This is from a letter sent from the Nevada Democrats to Fox:

A month ago, the Nevada Democratic Party entered into a good faith agreement with FOX News to co-sponsor a presidential debate in August. This was done because the Nevada Democratic Party is reaching out to new voters and we strongly believe that a Democrat will not win Nevada unless we find new ways to talk to new people.

To say the least, this was not a popular decision. But it is one that the Democratic Party stood by. However, comments made last night by FOX News President Roger Ailes in reference to one of our presidential candidates went too far. We cannot, as good Democrats, put our party in a position to defend such comments.

In light of his comments, we have concluded that it is not possible to hold a Presidential debate that will focus on our candidates and are therefore canceling our August debate. We take no pleasure in this, but it is the only course of action.

Act Blue has become the preferred grassroots fundraising platform, allowing donors to give as little as $5 and allowing fundraising with no overhead. Every dollar you donate through Act Blue goes right to the candidate or organization you want to support. With Act Blue ANYONE can fundraise easily and at no expense other than their time. I have used Act Blue to raise thousands of dollars for candidates and groups I supported. Since 2004, nearly $20 million have been raised for Democrats and progressive organizations through Act Blue.

Well, one thing interesting I see looking at the Act Blue front page is the fundraising going on from the grassroots for the Democratic candidates for President. Here are the top 5 presidential funds on Act Blue. I should note that many of them are linked to from multiple Act Blue pages.

1. John Edwards 7,717 $844,576.31

2. Bill Richardson Exploratory Fund 1,076 $284,891.57

3. Barack Obama 176 $16,885.56

4. Bill Richardson Draft Fund 117 $10,154.85

5. Al Gore Draft Fund 101 $2,585.87

Not at all surprising to me is the absense of Hillary from the top 5. She has ample support but not much from the grassroots and netroots. I think that is why so many of us hear little good about her yet she may yet be a frontrunner: we mostly are in touch with grassroots and netroots organizers and they, by and large, are not with Hillary. Her support comes from elsewhere: bigger donors, more mainstream Democratic interests, the big league fundraisers. Hillary is the most mainstream of the candidates, I guess. But some things do surprise me in this list. Looking at it, only two candidates are really ahead: Edwards and Richardson. These two candidates are by FAR outraising their opponents through this grassroots/netroots medium. Had you asked me to guess who was doing best I might have picked Gore and Obama, with Edwards maybe third. I didn't expect Richardson to be doing so well and this indicates I might be underestimating him. And Obama is underperforming where I expected him to be. Does he have less appeal among the grassroots/netroots than Edwards and Richardson? I think the Act Blue fundraising may be a good indication of this.