elecion 2008

Tomorrow the primaries/caucuses begin with Iowa. For the Democrats, Iowa and New Hampshire maintain their place as the kick off states for the primaries. The Republicans have thumbed their noses at New Hampshire by intercalating Wyoming after Iowa and before New Hampshire. So be it. Some argue that this whole circus and the prominent places for Iowa and New Hampshire are a dumb way to conduct a primary. I have started to feel that the tradition of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary as leading the way has some merit, though I might add in another state or two within that first week. The reason I like these early testing grounds is that they really are the ONLY time where face-to-face time between candidates and voters is more important than TV spots, and so money may matter just a bit less in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary than it would in major states like Florida or California. Hire a bus and shake hands and make your case in person seems to be the norm in these two states, and having the first votes come in such an environment may well be a good thing. Let TV advertising take full control after individual voters, poking and prodding the candidates in person have had a shot I say. So maybe I am getting old fashioned, but I think Iowa and New Hampshire are good first testing grounds.

So what does the next month mean for determining our next President. Well, we all know it is probably going to all be over Feb. 5th when a whole slew of states, the biggies included, vote. Anything after that is likely to make little difference...with the caveat that as of now neither the Dem nor the Rep field is clear enough that we are guaranteed clear front runners even after Feb. 5th. But what happens between now and Feb 5th is VERY likely to pare things down to clear frontrunners for each party.