Surveys

The Pew Institute for Research is probably the largest non-for-profit public opinion survey group in the United States. Many people from both the left and right look at them as the source for number crunching anything having to do with elections, media use and the socio-political impact of market demographics.

So it is not shocking to see the reaction around a recent survey they released that pits Hillary Clinton against Rudy Giuliani; especially after the hyperbolic headline published at Politico.com.

I just have to wonder though, how those numbers read when compared to Quinnipac's similar survey for New York state. Giulini's advantage over her is of only 2%. Considering that most surveys have a 2-5% margin of error, that means they are in a dead heat in the Empire state.

Given New Yorkers do know how much of an asshole Rudy is, all I have to say that these polls are more about name recognition and public perception than anything having to do with the facts about either candidate's career.

Which makes it even more depressing to realize that most people really don't vote with the facts; they really just vote with their intuition. Whomever controls the gut instinct wins.

Which is why, this would make for an interesting pairing because, as John Gandelman points out over at The Moderate Voice, it will all come down to immigration.