I have been working to expand the focus of Culture Kitchen to include more international issues. I am hoping to have some bloggers from African nations on board soon, if all goes well. In the meantime, a friend sent me the following story. At first it may seem inconsequential to Americans that the nation of Guinea is on the verge of chaos, but when it is realized that Guinea has been seen as a stabilizing force amid the horrors of Liberal and Sierra Leone, this development is disturbing.

A new flashpoint is emerging in Africa. Here is BBC News' description of the African nation of Guinea:

Ruled by strong-arm leaders since independence, Guinea has been seen as a bulwark against instability in neighbouring Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast. However it has also been implicated in the conflicts that have ravaged the region.

That "bulwark against instability" seems to be tottering dangerously. A general strike, now in its second week, and unrest, opposed by some violent attacks from the military is spreading through the capital as opposition forces call for the resignation of the nation's strongman leader.

You can read one man's description of the unrest here.

First some background. According to the CIA factbook:

Guinea has had only two presidents since gaining its independence from France in 1958. Lansana CONTE came to power in 1984 when the military seized the government after the death of the first president, Sekou TOURE. Guinea did not hold democratic elections until 1993 when Gen. CONTE (head of the military government) was elected president of the civilian government. He was reelected in 1998 and again in 2003. Unrest in Sierra Leone and Liberia has spilled over into Guinea on several occasions over the past decade, threatening stability and creating humanitarian emergencies. In 2006, declining economic conditions prompted two massive strikes that sparked urban unrest in many Guinean cities.

The appearance of stability may in part be due to the military keeping down opposition. But there is one key thing to keep in mind here. Conte seems to be about as glowingly healthy as Fidel Castro is these days, so what might really be going on is a fight over the succession when he dies (or am I reading too much ancient Roman history...?). According to BBC News:

Mr Conte, who is a diabetic and a chain smoker, rarely makes public appearances. There is no obvious successor to the ailing leader.

When military might keeps a nation "stable," periods of transition of leadership are almost always periods of considerable instability. With Conte's health failing about as badly as the economic health of the nation, the situation amounts to a powder keg waiting for a spark. And that spark may have arrived. But don't get me wrong...I am not saying that this popular uprising in itself will effect change. I am saying it could be the spark that sets the real powerbroker, the army, into a full-scale fight over who will be the next leader.

From the UN Integrated Regional Information Networks:

Guinea's long borders and central position mean analysts view it as a regional lynchpin, saying serious domestic instability could easily spill over, ending tenuous progress towards the consolidation of peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone, which both experienced devastating civil wars in the 1990s.

Bram Posthumus, an independent West Africa analyst with 10 years of experience studying Guinea, said although he does not believe enough of a critical mass of demonstrators has been reached to seriously threaten the Guinean government, which is reinforced with a thus-far loyal 8,000 strong army, he does think Monday's uprising marks a major change in the country's mindset.

"What these strikes tell me is that people in Guinea have been tipped over the edge. The strike will continue," Posthumus predicted. He said it "remains to be seen" how much Monday's violent response from the government has affected people...

Posthumus said it is Guinea's army, not the people, that will decide whether Conte stays in power or goes. "If they say they're not prepared to keep supporting a corrupt government then that might be the tipping point," Posthumus said. "The army is the only agency able to decide."

Monday was the bloodiest day in over a decade in Guinea and was the first time people have risen up in such numbers against Conte. Rough estimates put 30,000 people on the streets in Conakry, and tens of thousands of others in towns across the country.

The day's death toll meant at least 45 people have been killed during protests and riots in Conakry and provincial towns since the strike began, according to witnesses and hospital sources...

Ibrahima Fofana, leader of the Guinean Workers Union, who said he was arrested and beaten on Monday, told IRIN on Tuesday that the strike would go on, and unions were sticking to their demand that President Lansana Conte hand over all his powers to a newly appointed prime minister.

"The strike will continue until the final victory. Almost no solutions have been found to the problems we have posed," he said. Union leaders entered a meeting with Conte at 6pm on Tuesday.

Liberia has only recently reached some level of stability after some 20 years of bloody and brutal civil war. Similarly, Sierra Leone only just emerged from a decade of civil war. And the Ivory Coast, once held up as a model of stability similar to how people were viewing Guinea, collapsed into civil war in 1999 and only recently has achieved even a marginal level of stability again. Guinea could be poised to be the next West Africa tragedy, and each civil war almost invariably destabilizes all the neighboring nations. So let's hope Guinea can emerge from the iron fist of Conte without serious bloodshed.