Zimbabwe

I recently wrote about the very strong possibility that Zimbabwe is well on its way to complete collapse, which would almost certainly mean tragedy as bad or worse than we saw in Rwanda, Cambodia and Bosnia and are currently seeing in Darfur.

But, turns out that, according to an analysis published in Foreign Policy magazine, Zimbabwe is not at the top of the list of failed states...at least not yet. Perhaps not surprisingly the Sudan leads the list as the most unstable nation on earth. Neglect by the international community is cited as part of the reason for the situation in both the Sudan and Zimbabwe. But for two states among the top ten failed states, neglect is not the problem. Iraq is number two and Afghanistan is number 8. Interestingly our ally, Pakistan at number 12, does slightly worse than North Korea, which comes in at number 13.

The rankings take into account 12 factors, including economy, human rights, refugees, etc.

No one would look at North Korea or Zimbabwe and see them as anything but failed or failing states. Dictatorship by a corrupt and self-serving leadership is ruining these, and other, nations in a very predictable way. And the crises in Somalia and Sudan, for example, are clearly crises that could have been dealt with better had the international community done something before things got this bad. In the case of Somalia are best opportunity was early in the Clinton Administration where we had secured most of the nation. But a single petty strongman shooting down a single helicopter, spooked Republicans in Congress who proceeded to insist that we cut and run from Somalia. We left, allowing the nation to collapse into such chaos that Islamic Fundamentalists (with al-Qaeda links) and Ethiopia became the competing chances for some semblance stability.

Societal collapse is not a pretty site. It usually involves many deaths and occasionally even some pretty horrific images creeping in between reports of Paris Hilton's latest prison experience.

We've seen societal collapse. Biafra...Rwanda...Cambodia...the Balkans...

Zimbabwe is predicted to be within 6 months of collapse according to a secretive and leaked report commissioned for aid workers. Alarmist? Unlikely?

Consider this. The current inflation rate in Zimbabwe is 3,714%. Yeah...you read that correctly. Quadruple digit inflation. Add to that 80% unemployment. One third of the population depends on food aid from the international community, which of course requires sufficient infrastructure and stability for food to get through.

I think you already have what amounts to economic collapse. No work and no one can buy anything.

Zimbabwe's dictator of course blames "the West" for sabatoging his nation. Ignore the fact that his regime is among the most repressive and corrupt on earth. It is also one of those nations where nearly a quarter of the population is HIV infected. Combining that with the economic situation, it is not surprising that average life expectancy is in the mid to late thirties.

The international community let genocide occur in the Balkans, in Rwanda, in Darfur. We can make a reasonable guess that Zimbabwe may be next for full scale societal collapse by the end of this year. Will anyone do anything about it?