"Hillary Clinton can't win a national general election". This is conventional wisdom among people who know about these things. As is so often the case with the conventional wisdom, this assessment is based on a very rich and consistent amount of data, collected and analyzed over years.
It stands to reason, however, that she also has loyalists; even Lyndon LaRouche does, after all, and who knows how he would fare if he'd had the good sense to sleep with a President. These loyalists rather recently were giddy over polling results showing her able to just break over the 50% hurdle in a national election. I said at the time that this was an announcement bounce, in a very customary and well-known pattern.
And so it was. Polling data released earlier this week and month shows Hillary losing New Jersey, and barely holding New York and Connecticut. Read on.
Quinnipiac, New Jersey [1]:
New Jersey Voters Don't Adore The Senator Next Door, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Trails Giuliani, Ties McCain In Garden State
In an early look at the 2008 presidential race in New Jersey, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 48 - 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 44 percent to Sen. Clinton's 43 percent, a tie.
Kerry won New Jersey 53% to 46%.
Quinnipiac, Connecticut [2]:
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are running neck and neck in Connecticut as they begin their 2008 presidential bid, with 46 percent of voters for Sen. Clinton and 44 percent for Giuliani, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
John Kerry won Connecticut 54% to 44%.
Quinnipiac, New York [3]:
Sen. Hillary Clinton leads former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 50 - 40 percent among New York State voters in an early test of the 2008 presidential campaign, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
By contrast, Kerry won New York with 69% of the vote.
The median electoral performance of a nominee Hillary therefore seems to run about a generic -9% versus John Kerry and a median -15% compared to November 2006. Extrapolated to the November 2008 general election, the republican nominee - especially if that should be Rudy Giuliani - can presently look forward to a Reagan-in-1984-style landslide.
Which would in turn in all likelihood cost the Democrats control of Congress, and set back the party for a decade or so.
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