I predicted Hucakbee would win Iowa [1]. It doesn't mean that much. He will probably win Wyoming and South Carolina as well. I think McCain has a good shot at New Hampshire. Giuliani might just pull off some wins. Romney...well, he may take Michigan. My money is on Huckabee winning the nomination and has been for months. But it remains a three-to-four way race among the sad, sagging Republican race. Remember that Fred Thompson was supposed to save the Republicans from complete lameness. THAT sure didn't work. So lameness it remains, but Huckabee may be the most dangerous of the lame candidates. He trounced Romney tonight and I think that MIGHT spell the end of Romney. If Romney weren't a flip-flopping creep, I wouldn't think it would matter. But given that I didn't really believe he had much of a chance from the start, I think his loss tonight is significant. I think either Huckabee will surge and dominate, or he will find himself in a close heat with either McCain or McCain and Giuliani once Feb. 5th comes around.
On the Dem side I predicted Hillary would win Iowa [2] with Edwards a possible second. Obama pulled it off. I think this means Edwards has very little chance. By no means no chance. But the polls don't look good for him elsewhere, so losing Iowa means no momentum going forward...which bodes ill. He's no fool. He could still pull off a comeback, but I don't consider it likely.
So Hillary has had her first defeat. When I though Iowa would go for Hillary or Edwards, I was fairly convinced New Hampshire would go for Obama...I predicted that Iowa and New Hampshire would break for different candidates. I still think this is a possibility, but there is a real chance Obama could win both. Hillary is the most likely to win Michigan and Nevada. If Obama wins two and Hillary wins two at that point, given the current polls in the big states, I don't see Edwards winning unless he can do some miracle in South Carolina. But I think if Obama and Hillary have each taken two by that point, South Carolina will break for Obama. And he will be poised to be the front runner.
Then comes Florida closely followed by the big Feb 5th day. Hillary seems ahead now in California and New York and that will help her a lot, particularly combined with Michigan. If she maintains her lead in Florida, she could still waltz to a win despite Obama's early wins because with Michigan, Florida, California and New York, she will be doing just fine. But...if Obama wins Iowa, New Hampshire, AND South Carolina, I think Florida and California may shift. Also, if Edawrds has won NOTING by South Carolina, he may drop and then where his supporters break will be key. I think they may split between Obama and Hillary, but they could easily throw Florida and California to Obama if Edwards drops out.
Without Iowa, Edwards really needs a win in Michigan or South Carolina to keep himself afloat, and the polls have not been encouraging for him so far. Iowa meant more to him than it did to either Obama or Hillary. Hillary could easily take a loss in Iowa as long as she maintains her Michigan and Florida leads. Obama could also take a loss in Iowa, though a win REALLY boosts him. But Edwards was polling better in Iowa than in any other early state and he really needed that. I think this was his death blow, but I know there is enough uncertainty that I could be proven wrong.
I say Romney and Edwards are hurt badly tonight. Obama is boosted. Hillary remains about where she was.
New Hampshire will go McCain (or Romney...) and Obama (or Hillary). Again, a win for Obama will be big, a loss for Hillary not such a big deal...IF she can maintain her lead in Michigan and Florida.
I am excited. A black man won the Iowa caucus. Martin Luther King, jr. would be smiling.
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