Moqtada al Sadr

The much touted "surge" that was dreamed up by John McCain and pushed so eagerly by George Bush, Joe Lieberman and most Republicans (against the advice of many generals) first saw a large INCREASE in violence in Iraq as ethnic clensing of neighborhoods in Bagdhad and elsewhere ran its course. Then there was a lull in violence, as formerly mixed Shia/Sunni neighborhoods became sharply segregated. But Bush, McCain and Lieberman claimed that the surge was working.

This month should put an end to that claim. As civil war broke out again, violence skyrocketed. From BBC news:

The monthly figure of people killed in Iraq rose by 50% in March compared with the previous month, according to official government counts.

A total of 1,082 Iraqis, including 925 non-combatant civilians, were killed, up from 721 in February...

March also saw an increase in bombings and intense fighting between Shia militiamen and government forces.

The number of deaths last month seems to confirm a trend of rising deaths due to violence.

More than 1,800 people were killed in August 2007. This declined to 540 in January 2008, but the figure has risen steadily since...

What happened was not that the surge worked. What happened was that al-Sadr has been calling the shots. When he declared a cease fire, violence went down.