New Hampshire

Concord City Democrats Yard Sale
May 10, 2008
8:00am-12:00pm

The Concord City Democrats will hold a yard sale fundaiser at 21 Stone St. Ext. in Concord, NH. Please come by and find a bargain!

This is the concession speech that never was. You can find the full text of the speech after the jump.

We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no
matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can withstand the
power of millions of voices calling for change.

We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics who will
only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks to come. We've been
asked to pause for a reality check. We've been warned against
offering the people of this nation false hope.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been
anything false about hope. For when we have faced down impossible
odds; when we've been told that we're not ready, or that we shouldn't
try, or that we can't, generations of Americans have responded with a
simple creed that sums up the spirit of a people.

Yes we can.

Violet Socks over at Reclusive Leftist has written one hell of a take on the New Hampshire Primary title, The Secret Ballot :

“Obama,” she said to the leaflet people as she and her husband arrived to cast their votes in the primary. “We’re voting for Obama.”

Inside the booth she closed the curtain behind her. The ballot was the AccuVote kind, with a blank oval next to each candidate’s name. She looked at the list.

I HEREBY DECLARE MY PREFERENCE FOR CANDIDATE FOR THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES TO BE AS FOLLOWS:

Read the whole thing NOW!

I believe that Hillary Clinton won for 4 very important reasons :

1. The campaign was able to get as many registered Democrats to vote for her as possible.

2. Since most registered Democrats who came to vote were women, the "tear heard around the world" was successful in getting her the last minute sympathy vote from people who ...

3. would have otherwise voted for John Edwards.

I think it is clear that for Hillary Clinton to stay in the race she needs to beat John Edwards, not Barack Obama. Edwards ran a remarkable game in Iowa. Had he had as much money as Clinton, he probably would have beaten her by more than just 1%. I am not sure though that under the voting trends of Iowa, he would have been able to beat Barack Obama.

4. The Obama campaign has insisted in equating their "I am not a black candidate" campaign with a complete disregard for the colored blogosphere. Yesterday was the day that it showed how much that has cost them.

So let's look at the numbers, courtesy of MSNBC.com :

NBC calls the primary for Hillary Clinton.

John McCain takes it from the Republicans.

My feeling? I think it is interesting how her campaign has told the media how they are running out of money. Well .... I think they positioned that as an opportunity to milk it no matter. If they lost, the 527 would have to throw money by way of ads. If she won, she then would get a deluge of contributions. I so want to see their fundraising numbers in the next 3 days.

But, deep down inside? I think it is just going to get really ugly.

Image taken from Racialicious

Big and little media went nutso yesterday after Hillary pulled a Bill Clinton and chocked a little during an early event.

Then some allegedly random guys appear this morning on an event and scream at the Senator to 'iron their shirts'. You know, because that's what all women should do.

Then Gloria Steinem, to kind of feed into 'this is a sexist world and she's fucked' kind of narrative, goes on and write an incredibly offensive endorsement of the Senator. In "Women Are Never Front-Runners", she makes the "hos before bros" counter-argument.

And now comes word that Emily's List and ASFCME had to deny they were getting together with other 527s to create an "Anybody but Obama" ad blitz.

Well, in Iowa we had a HUGE surprise win for Obama. I had called it for Clinton. New Hampshire I called for Obama. Looks like, barring a sudden turn around, it will go for Clinton. Well, I DID predict they would go different ways and I got THAT part right.

Iowa: Obama, Edwards, Clinton pull delegates (in descending order)

New Hampshire: Clinton, Obama, Edwards pull delegates (probably in that order)

This throws everything back into play, of course. Will this throw South Carolina back to Clinton? I predict it will go Obama. But I do think Nevada may stick with Clinton, though if the Culinary Union really does go Obama (as rumors circulated today). Which all means Feb 5th will be the big day we all expected it to be.

On the (yawn) Republican side, my predicted win for Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire came to pass. I was wrong about Wyoming which went for Romney instead of my predicted Huckabee.

So:

Iowa: Huckabee, Romney, Thompson pull delegates
Wyoming: Romney, Thompson, Hunter pull delegates
New Hampshire: McCain, Romney, Huckabee pull delegates (probably in that order)

So it really looks like both parties won't have a clue who will win until Feb 5th or after. And you know, that is kind of cool.

Brave New Films is hosting a live primary coverage over at their Elections 2008 livestream site. I will be on at 10PM sharing my punditry with the world and Cenk Uygur of the Young Turks show on Air America.

The show starts at 7PM and will start lining up bloggers by 7:10PM. Here's the schedule :

7:10: Robert Greenwald, Brave New Films
7:40: Matthew Yglesias, The Atlantic
7:50: Robin Abcarian, L.A. Times
8:00: Billy Wimsatt, League of Young Voters
8:10: Rachel Sklar, The Huffington Post
8:20: Jane Hamsher, Firedoglake
8:30: Jim Dean, Democracy For America
8:40: Steve Clemons, The Note
9:00: Lane Hudson, News for the Left
9:10: Isaiah Poole, Campaign for America's Future
9:40: James Rucker, Color of Change
10:00: Liza Sabater, Culture Kitchen
10:10: Eric Boehlert, Media Matters

Tomorrow the primaries/caucuses begin with Iowa. For the Democrats, Iowa and New Hampshire maintain their place as the kick off states for the primaries. The Republicans have thumbed their noses at New Hampshire by intercalating Wyoming after Iowa and before New Hampshire. So be it. Some argue that this whole circus and the prominent places for Iowa and New Hampshire are a dumb way to conduct a primary. I have started to feel that the tradition of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary as leading the way has some merit, though I might add in another state or two within that first week. The reason I like these early testing grounds is that they really are the ONLY time where face-to-face time between candidates and voters is more important than TV spots, and so money may matter just a bit less in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary than it would in major states like Florida or California. Hire a bus and shake hands and make your case in person seems to be the norm in these two states, and having the first votes come in such an environment may well be a good thing. Let TV advertising take full control after individual voters, poking and prodding the candidates in person have had a shot I say. So maybe I am getting old fashioned, but I think Iowa and New Hampshire are good first testing grounds.

So what does the next month mean for determining our next President. Well, we all know it is probably going to all be over Feb. 5th when a whole slew of states, the biggies included, vote. Anything after that is likely to make little difference...with the caveat that as of now neither the Dem nor the Rep field is clear enough that we are guaranteed clear front runners even after Feb. 5th. But what happens between now and Feb 5th is VERY likely to pare things down to clear frontrunners for each party.

Awhile back I wrote about an effort by New Hampshire's Democratic Governor, John Lynch, trying to lead a bipartisan effort to ensure quality healthcare for American children. At the end of that article, I mentioned my own Governor, Eliot Spitzer, was threatening to sue George Bush over healthcare.

Well, Spitzer was true to his word. While Bush and the "drown America in a bathtub" Republicans try to cut healthcare for Americans even further, Eliot Spitzer, joined by Governor John Lynch of New Hampshire, Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey, and Governor Rod Blagojevich of Illinois, are suing the Bush Administration for its failure to follow the law requiring provision of healthcare for America's children.

From the NY State Governor's website:

Governor Eliot Spitzer today announced that a group of states will be pursuing legal challenges against the Bush Administration for violating provisions of the federal State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), which provides affordable health coverage for children in families that cannot afford to buy private health insurance.

The state action was triggered in August when the federal Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) arbitrarily imposed new rules that block states from expanding their children’s health insurance programs. Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, Arizona, California and New Hampshire will participate in litigation, either as plaintiffs or by filing supporting briefs, against the Bush Administration for violating the provisions of the SCHIP statute.